2009 Academy/Prezzie Award Forecaster

With less than 9 months away until the 2009 Academy Awards, and about 8 1/2 until the 2nd Prezzie/Uglie Awards, let's take a look at 10 films that will be released sometime between October-December and could be major players come February. There's some major lineage going on in most of these films, with very few casting unusual choices. Rather it's mostly "acclaimed" actors teaming up with "acclaimed" directors, often for the first time:


The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button (tentative release date: December 19)
With a rumored $100 million dollar budget and enough prestige to make any Hollywood jet-setter's eyes boggle, Benjamin Button could end up becoming too bloated and over-saturated for voters by February. But the ultra-stylized trailer is marvelous in highlighting not only what the story is about but hints at the fantastical and macabre elements that seem like a Tim Burton film. With 10 nominations and 3 wins between them, stars Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett (sup. actress, The Aviator), Tilda Swinton (sup. actress, Michael Clayton) and screenwriter Eric Roth (screenplay, Forrest Gump) may elevate critically popular David Fincher (Fight Club, Se7en, Zodiac) into his first directorial nomination.



Revolutionary Road (tentative release date: December 26; limited)
Whether it's truly and fully justified or not, Leonardo DiCaprio has been Hollywood's favorite son for serious Academy fare the past 6 years, only to get looked over with 2 nominations out of 5 "Oscar marketed" films since 2002. With Revolutionary Road and his other 2008 piece House Of Lies (read below), DiCaprio looks to score his first Best Actor win. In Road, he's paired with his Titanic lover and 5-time nominated Kate Winslet in a story about domestic squabbles between a family in the mid-1950's, directed by Sam Mendes (best director, American Beauty). With Kathy Bates (actress, Misery) in tow, look for this film to take a path akin to Mendes' Beauty if it doesn't go stale.

Australia (tentative release date: November 14)
Expect this film to be full of sweeping, beautiful scenery, and enough bombastic self-importance to seem like a triumphant film. But if Oscar past has any say, Australia will garner a few sympathy nominations and disappear on awards night. English-speaking foreign films have been weak of late- although Atonement was the big winner of the Prezzies, it flunked at the Oscars. Australia will be forced to rely on stock (native to the country as they may be) that has been on a decline. Nicole Kidman, though winning Best Actress in 2003 for The Hours, hasn't been in a good film since then. Hugh Jackman, outside of The Prestige, has been unreliable in film since his X-Men days. Most distressing of all is director Baz Luhrmann who's films (Moulin Rouge!, Romeo + Juliet) have been of cult nature, not something Oscar voters pick up on.

Doubt (tentative release date: December)
Depending on the artistic style of director John Patrick Shanley's vision, Doubt may end up as a forgotten morality tale along the lines of 2007's Before The Devil Knows You're Dead. Basically it's about a Catholic school nun in 1964 who grows suspicious of a priest who takes a little too much interest in a student. The queen of the Oscar nominations Meryl Streep stars as the nun, and with her last win coming in 1983 (Actress, Sophie's Choice), voters might feel she's ready for another one. Critic darling Philip Seymour Hoffman (Actor, Capote) plays the possibly pedophile priest (that's alot of P's), and IT girl Amy Adams appears as a fellow nun. This could end up with a few acting nominations and a shut out in the big technical/picture categories.

Changeling (tentative release date: November 7)
Directed by 4 time nominee, 2 time winner Clint Eastwood? Check. Starring everyone's favorite Hollywood Humanitarian and World Mother Angelina Jolie, looking for her first nomination in 9 years? Check. Supported by actor's actor John Malkovich, and Prezzie winner and Oscar nominee Amy Ryan? Check. Debuting to rave reviews at the Cannes Film Festival? Check. All systems seems go for this tale about a working woman who's son gets kidnapped, and then "returned" to her. However, with the critical and box office failure of more recent Prohibition-era Los Angeles-based films such as The Black Dahlia and Hollywoodland, and the quick succession of Eastwood films, voters may end up being turned off by this.



House Of Lies (tentative release date: October 10)
Leo DiCaprio's other Oscar-stalking film. Here, he eschews his typical Martin Scorcese fare and teams up with Ridley Scott (3 nominations) and Scott's frequent acting collaborator Russell Crowe (3 nominations, 1 win, Actor, Gladiator) to star in a film about a former journalist in the Iraq War who hunts down a terrorist in Jordan. Scott's American Gangster opened up to much acclaim last year, only to end up so slick it was completely forgotten about by the end of the year. With DiCaprio, Crowe, and another Iraq War script (did anyone else besides me see Stop-Loss?), this could befall a similar fate.

Milk (tentative release date: December 5)
If Johnny Depp is the eclectic actor gone pop, Sean Penn is still the eclectic one down on the streets. Here he plays Harvey Milk, the first openly gay elected politician, assassinated for reasons NOT being related to his sexuality. This is a film that could change the guards of established award nominees in the previous films. Aside from Penn, Josh Brolin, James Franco, Emile Hirsch, Diego Luna, and Victor Garber all are adept co-stars. Director Gus Van Sant, keeping a low-key since the failure of his Psycho with experimental films such as Elephant and Paranoid Park, may be ready for a trip back to the awards categories since his only nomination in 1997 (director, Good Will Hunting)

Che- aka The Argentine and Guerrilla (tentative release date: ?)
Benicio Del Toro seems destined to play former Argentine revolutionist Che Guevara. Never mind Del Toro's from Puerto Rico, Hollywood's not ready to get THAT politically correct yet. Still, Del Toro (sup. actor, Traffic) and director Steven Soderbergh (director, Traffic) had so much ground to cover, they ended up making two separate movies, The Argentine and Guerrilla, which covered two different parts of Guevara's life. The Argentine looks like it will end up being the more prestigious film, but unfortunately together (they were aired back to back as Che at the Cannes Film Festival) they could cancel each other out, much like Clint Eastwood's Flags Of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima. Still, the Academy loves biographical figures, so it's hard to see Del Toro not pick up a nomination here.



Burn After Reading (tentative release date: September 12)
The Coen brothers go back to comedy after their big award winner No Country For Old Men, but unlike their last comedy, the wretched The Ladykillers remake, Burn After Reading fortunately looks like it has the offbeat charms of The Big Lebowski and possibly Fargo. With a cast so large in name checking (Brad Pitt! George Clooney! Tilda Swinton! Frances McDormand! John Malkovich!) and the Academy's natural affinity to shun comedies, it could arrive DOA by February. But with a fun, punchy trailer and the ability not to get too serious within themselves, the Coens should still at least pick up a screenwriting nod. J.K. Simmons, as a clueless FBI honcho, may have the coolest role of the year.

W. (tentative release date: October 17; limited)
The ultimate wild card and dark horse of any awards race. On one hand the subject matter of a current sitting President being made into a biography has plenty of reasons to end up coming off as propaganda and doing poorly (how quickly did the critics wipe the smile off of Robert Redford & Tom Cruise's faces after Lions For Lambs came out?). However, many in the Academy are staunch liberals, and like the impending realignment in politics that looks to change the White House, W. could come away with some controversial awards. Director Oliver Stone handled Nixon well, but hasn't been in favor with the voters since the early 1990's. But add up-and-coming voter interests like Josh Brolin and Thandie Newton... and you just simply never know until the film comes out.


10 Other films of note:
Appaloosa- Viggo Mortensen does his non-Hildalgo western thing, and re-teams with Ed Harris in Harris' second directorial effort. 3:10 To Yuma was undeservedly absent from the Oscars last year, so this one probably will be too.
Blindness- This film had much promise and an interesting plot idea, plus Mark Ruffalo & Julianne Moore can't hurt. But word out of Cannes is less than stellar.
Defiance- Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber do a Schindler's List kind of thing with Edward Zwick (Blood Diamond) directing.
Frost/Nixon- Ron Howard does his version of Goodnight and Good Luck. But can this talky subject mesh well with the broad touch of Howard?
Miracle At St. Anna- The trailer looks really good, and after Inside Man, Spike Lee's credibility hasn't been this high in years. But the Academy hasn't acknowledged him before, will a WWII movie do the trick?
Synecdoche, New York- The plot is as confusing as the title is to pronounce, but Charlie Kaufman should be a writer nomination shoo-in.
The Dark Knight- The first major film with award chances, Heath Ledger definitely deserves a Best Supporting Actor nomination, as does Aaron Eckhart. Dark Knight might also be a dark horse for Best Picture, Screenplay, etc.
The Reader- Kate Winslet plays up post-War Germany, but it's unsure if the film can be released before the Awards deadline. If it can, it'll be a strong contender.
The Soloist- After Iron Man and Tropic Thunder, Robert Downey Jr goes for a 2008 trifecta with Jamie Foxx and director Joe Wright (Atonement). Is this Resurrecting The Champ but with better marketing and prestige?
Valkyrie- With all his negative publicity surrounding Scientology, can Tom Cruise actually ever rebound with a serious acting career again? Playing a German officer in WWII with a bad accent? Nah.